The situation between Gazprom and Lithuania must fit into the context of the evolution of the market of the European Union, where the third ènergopaket is the final document chain durable transformation initiated in Gaza the first (1998) and second (2003) ènergopaketami (gas directives and regulations).
What happens in Lithuania, has two components: economic and political. In the economic part of the events in Lithuania, the Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom around (operator of the transmission network) is the surface of the iceberg the long-term economical and legal changes to create a single internal market for gas, the EU, drawing on the principles underlying the formation of the EU still “Treaty of Rome”, 1958, a single EU gas market is built in 1998, gradually introducing such policy for the EU position as: office supply business from business on its transportationcompulsory third party access to the gas transmission infrastructure, etc. Thus, the third ènergopaket is an objective reality, which will make Gazprom, he wants it or not, to organize your business in Europe in a new way, namely: work in the long term in this market as a supplier (shipper). Gazprom and other participants in the gas market, the EU warned of future change is long, more than 10 years in a row. He was reluctant (or less prepared than its main competitors) why and lost part of its market share in the EU during the 2009-2010 biennium. At the same time, such changes must occur in an evolutionary way, allowing entrants to gradually adapt their supply contract structure to new legislative requirements as completion of existing contracts. We cannot demand from businesses for the renegotiation of existing contracts due to changes in legislation, it would be contrary to the principles of contract law. Contracts (especially investment) are usually protected by so-called “deduškinymi reservations”, non-retroactivity of laws requiring compliance with non starter contractual terms at the introduction of new legislation.
Political component events in Lithuania (Lithuania and, at the same scenario of events unfolding in Poland) reflects, in my view, in an attempt to accelerate even faster implementation of the provisions of the third ènergopaketa in the EU, the least prepared economically and politically.
First, the third directive, which entered into force on 03.09.2009, should have been incorporated into the legislation of each country of the EU over the next 18 months, i.e. by 03.03.2011 and the provisions of article 11 of the directive relating to companies from third countries for a period of two years later, to 03.03.2013. However, none of the countries of the EU to 03.03.2011 has brought its domestic legislation into conformity with the requirements of the third ènergopaketa. Therefore, the EU Commissioner for energy Günther Oettinger, Günter 28.02.2011 officially extended the deadline for all EU countries to bring their national legislation into line with the provisions of the third ènergopaketa to autumn 2011, However, on information from the European Commission (as can be seen from its official representative on the European gas Conference 26.02.2012 in Vienna), in January 2012, Lithuania and even 7 EU countries still have not made appropriate adjustments in their legislation. Thus, the events surrounding forced and accelerated withdrawal of Russian Gazprom and German EON-Ruhrgas from Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom shareholders were to unfold in the fall of 2010, i.e., six months earlier than originally provided for the Third ènergapaket, before Lithuania brought its legislation into line with its requirements. And in consideration of the fact that the main shareholders of Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom are two major foreign companies, two and a half years earlier than required. During this time (2.5 year) parties could, of course, to find a more quiet, without a political breakdown solution.
Secondly, Lithuania, like any other sovereign country now, formerly part of the SOVIET UNION and the COMECON, today, due to objective reasons, much less prepared for forced transformation to build competitive supply gas to the domestic market, which seeks withdrawal of Gazprom and EON-Ruhrgas from Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom shareholders. In Soviet times the power of the Soviet Republics (including the current Baltic States) developed the scenario is not competitive, but a monopoly of supply. For adjustment of the system in accordance with the requirements of the EU (members include the Baltic States), requires money and time. Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom did not push the restructuring will bring to market additional quantities of gas to Lithuania. It should not be forgotten that increase Gazprom’s energy supplies from Lithuania (which put him as an example of its monopoly position in the market and is being nominated as the reason for accelerated restructuring of Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom forced) occurred as a result of forced closure, under pressure from Brussels, the Ignalina nuclear power plant after the country’s entry into the EU. As a result, Gazprom had increased the supply of gas to compensate for the shortfall in electricity supply, since alternative sources of electricity in the country at the time just wasn’t (as don’t have them now).
Thirdly, Lithuania (and Poland) are among the closest neighbors of Russia that have survived to our country the most powerful “phantom pain” associated with our recent and distant history.
Because of the above, the beginning of forced change to implement the provisions of the third ènergopaketa the EU gas sector on the territory of these States the deadlines would, in my opinion (and regardless of where came this initiative) that their proponents were probably more political considerations aimed at creating additional problems in the relationship between our countries, rather than considerations of economic viability, which is always a minimization of risks and uncertainties and to ensure a long-term balance between the interests of the States concerned and their businesses. Therefore, political scientists could evaluate deployment events around Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom as unconstructive political attempt to double-check the strength of relations between our countries. I have no doubt that a mutually agreeable solution to the Lithuanian operator Lietuvos dujos to OAO Gazprom will be found. Important-after the Lithuania, Poland and other countries across the European space, Gazprom will have to change their business model. But you have to be able to separate the private political situation in Lithuania and Poland on the changes that are occurring in the Eu gas market.
No need to try at all costs to maintain the business model that existed in the European business of Gazprom for 50 years, has proved effective in those conditions, but now disappearing under the sovereign decisions of EU Member States. All parties need to transcend emotion and calmly, without hurrying up, allow these conflict situations not to have our colleagues and friends in Lithuania and Poland. You need to understand: not always restructuring business models will take place quietly, especially in such areas as capital intensive and long-term gas business. This business is heavily politicized. It is the consequences of the second world war, the political outcome of the boundary and developed system of international trade in Europe, the collapse of the COMECON and the Soviet Union that had changed the political map of Europe and the need to restructure the system of contractual relation. It’s a long and thorny path associated with the enormous investment risks. Therefore, you do not need to multiply their number of various politically-motivated actions.
Andrey Kopoplânik, Professor RGUNG. Gubkina
