Against the background of optimistic statements of the Armenian authorities on the pace of economic development, the assessment of Forbes magazine of the Armenian economy, “thundered like a bolt from the sky.” As the correspondent BakuToday, At a press conference in Yerevan on July 14 said the former head of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan.

But he added that does not believe the analysis of publications, however, he said, it’s still very sad for the country phenomenon, as large investors from abroad are guided by these ratings. Forbes magazine has published the July 6 top 10 worst economies in the world, in which the country with the worst economies in Madagascar found. Next on the list is Armenia. When it is compiling into account GDP and inflation, the index of per capita GDP and current account balance.

It is noteworthy that the Minister of Economy of Armenia Tigran Davtyan July 13 said that the conclusion of Forbes in Armenia is the product of mental obscure insinuations employee of the newspaper. In his view, this rating should not be given much attention. “It is unlikely that the world exists at least one sane person who would say that the economies of Armenia and Ukraine are among the worst in the world” – the minister said.

In response to the Minister of Economy Astryan said: “If the Armenian authorities are not really satisfied with the rating of Forbes, and consider it wrong to believe he is right, even if served by publication in the courts.”

Development after a crisis or in anticipation of a new wave

After the global crisis in developing countries (Russia, India and Latin America) experienced stable economic growth rates, the economist thinks. In the case of the Armenian economy, as noted by Asatryan, a lot depends on the state of the Russian economy, since it is a major trade partner of Armenia.

The former head of the Central Bank is not inclined to believe that the world faces a second wave of economic crisis, talk of which has recently been quite frequent. “The second wave will not. In the future, in developing countries such as Armenia, we can expect the appearance of the real impact of the economic crisis that occurred in 2009 in the U.S. and other developed countries – the collapse of credit markets and real estate” – predicted the expert adding that these sectors of the economy is expected to overheating.

With this proposition does not agree well known Armenian businessman, head of group of companies, “Mika Limited” oligarch Mikhail Bagdasarov. As he considers how the economic crisis all over the world, and in Armenia has not been overcome. “Many people here say the crisis has passed, but it is not, since the peak of the crisis may come in 2013″ – said Bagdasarov.

Private transfers and economic development of Armenia

According to Asatryan, Armenian authorities instead of improving the investment climate and reforming the tax legislation on the issue of economic development rely on private transfers. As he said, compared with the same period of last year, coming in Armenia private transfers from abroad, particularly from Russia, grew by 35%.

Effective use of these funds in terms of increased economic activity, monitoring expert, is not high. “The fact that these transfers are directed to the solution of social problems, or more precisely on consumer spending than in the real economy”, – he stressed.

As former chairman of the Central Bank, inflation in Armenia continues to remain high (8.5% – ed.), And the pace of economic development suggests that the country is still a long way from the pre-crisis to restore performance. “The structure of high inflation rates remain Agroprodukt. Even after the international markets has been some decline in wheat prices, the prices do not change in Armenia, which are responsible for operating a monopoly in the country”, – noted financier, adding that economic growth in Armenia in 2011 will amount to 4-5%, while inflation will range between 8 and 9%.

Value of exports and imports

Asatryan said that according to the National Statistical Service for the first five months of growth of exports compared to imports grew more. The volume of Armenia’s foreign trade in January-May 2011 in current prices amounted to $ 2.0577 billion, including exports of $ 487.7 million and imports – $ 1.57 billion negative trade balance of $ 1.08 billion “by year’s end imports amounted to about $ 4 billion, and exports – $ 1.5 billion, “- said Asatryan.

In the expert concern is the increase in foreign debt and changes in the quality of the debt. “With the build-up of external debt has also changed its quality. The fact that recently Armenia took loans to relatively high interest rates (6%), which in future will be very difficult to serve” – ​​he said. Foreign debt of Armenia in the program indicator of the Government in 2011 will be $ 3.75 billion, or 35.9% of GDP.

In this context, he drew parallels between Armenia and Greece. “Now in Greece, which is on the verge of economic collapse, not the largest foreign debt in Europe. However, Greece took loans at very high interest and not in a position to serve them” – concluded Asatryan.