Economy and social life of Tajikistan (the poorest of the CIS states) in 2011 will face a number of threats that could radically affect the stability in this Central Asian country.

The threat of hunger and increased migration

In Tajikistan in recent years have seen a population explosion that threatens this poor, war-ravaged Central Asian state of complete exhaustion of resources. Tajik proverb, “The extended family – a rich family,” unfortunately, is becoming a luxury for impoverished by civil war and economic difficulties the country. In this situation, the authorities go to extraordinary measures. In June 2010 the Parliament of Tajikistan adopted the “Law on Reproductive Health”, which includes a number of measures to control fertility.

In discussing the law of Tajik President Rakhmon highlighted the fact that the permanent population growth occurs in Tajikistan against the catastrophic decline of the gross domestic product. Thus, over the last 10 years the population grew from 5.5 million to 6.25 million. And among the least well-off – rural – population growth higher than in urban areas. During the same period the rural population increased from 3 million 807 thousand to 4 million 590 thousand people. According to the last census, 74.4% of the population are rural dwellers. In this case the gross domestic product for the same 10 years has decreased from 4 billion 615 million to 1 billion 900 million Somoni (approximately 674 million dollars)

According to various international organizations, from 6.25 million Tajiks 2 million are starving. 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. In the almost complete collapse of the industry and the lack of demand for labor in rural areas are forced to actually natural way of life.

According to the forecast of President Rakhmonov, in 2020 the population of Tajikistan could reach 8 million people. This means that today’s 10 hectare of irrigated land to a citizen of the country will be reduced to 8, which is extremely insufficient. And given the geographical features of the RT, the increase in acreage is not possible.

During the years of independence, agriculture Tajikistan degraded almost completely lost culture of farming. In addition, in recent years have sharply deteriorated, and weather conditions are constant heavy rain, hail and floods, locust invasion. It is extremely difficult for agriculture and promises to be a spring-summer 2011.

According to the Hydrometeorological Tajikistan over the past fall and this winter in the mountains of the country has fallen only a little rain – all within 5 to 15 percent of average annual norms. As noted by the representative of the Hydrometeorological Jamila Baydullaeva, in normal years by this time in the mountains of accumulating up to half of average annual norms of snow, which is a major source of summer water in the rivers of the region. “Last fall and this winter in the valleys is not actually any rain fell. This can be attributed to abnormal phenomena, although in previous years, very rarely, but still there were cases of lack of rainfall in autumn. We all hope for February and March, and again if not sufficient rainfall, then we can talk about the upcoming drought, “- said Baydullaeva. According to experts, the current lack of rainfall like the winter of 2001, when Tajikistan was faced with severe drought, which caused damage to the economy hundreds of millions of dollars. Some experts are already saying that harvest thousands of hectares of rain-fed (no irrigation) fields in Tajikistan in autumn sown winter wheat, irretrievably lost.

Irrigation system in the country, established during the Soviet Union did not receive funding and virtually destroyed.

Second consecutive bad year could lead to a sharp rise in the price of food, especially bread. Tajikistan now exports most of the grain from Kazakhstan and Russia. increase in exports may lead to depletion of foreign reserves in Tajikistan.

Inefficiency of agriculture leads to an outflow from the country’s able-bodied male population. In the fields of the republic are run only by women and children. Over 90 percent of Tajik migrants currently in Russia and their number could reach 2 million. In terms of labor migration in Tajikistan are extremely beneficial addition to the SES. In this case, the Tajik migrant workers will be able to effectively operate freely in Russia and Kazakhstan. Csmyagchenie migration regime can lead to a complete abandoning some rural areas and the disappearance of agriculture in Tajikistan.

Due to the extreme corruption of power in the country grants from international financial organizations and donor countries, dedicated to improving the efficiency of agriculture, are not used for other purposes.

The crisis in the cotton field In late May 2009, Tajikistan’s President issued a decree stating that all the cotton economy of the country were freed from debt payments, an intermediary company that gives them earlier fuel and fertilizer in exchange for future crops. These debts in the Republic amounted to more than $ 500 million.

Was written off outstanding debt (including accrued interest, penalties and interest) in the estimated amount of $ 548 million – an unprecedented sum for Tajikistan. – In particular, subject to full cancellation of funds in the amount of $ 435 million received through the company JVP “Credit Investment” under the guarantee of the National Bank of Tajikistan, and distributed among farmers by investors, as well as $ 113 million debt owed to commercial banks and direct investors are not connected with “Credit Invest.” Cover these debts to banks and investors, taking into account the proportional reduction (discount) will be implemented by providing the latest long-term stock of government securities. “Writing off debts of cotton caused a crisis in the banking system of Tajikistan, which can manifest itself in full in 2011. However, such drastic measures to support the cotton industry did not lead to the desired effect.

Cotton production in the country continues to be unprofitable every hectare of cotton brings a $ 700 profit, but it was invested in each hectare of $ 800. The arrival of a serious investor in the sector is impossible, since cotton export is controlled by the clan and the clan Rahmon extremely hard to protect their interests in the cotton business.

Rogun bled Tajikistan’s economy

. The campaign to sell shares in HPP Rogun helped to attract up to 820 million Somoni, or $ 218 million, or 3% of GDP. International experts have noted numerous cases of forced acquisition of shares, particularly among government officials and local business. After the active phase of fundraising was suspended in May 2010 on the recommendation of the IMF, virtually halted the sale. In addition to the funds collected population, himself the 2010 budget has allocated 650 million Somoni Rogun, and in 2011 laid 850 million.

However, at this moment to accelerate construction of a strategic facility in Tajikistan is impossible because of delays in deliveries of goods to Rogun on the border with Uzbekistan and for lack of a feasibility study by the World Bank – potentially the largest investor of the construction.

While the World Bank but only selected consultants for the job, and the prisoner must wait until next year, it is unclear when. Uzbekistan has previously refused to accept this conclusion. Thus, it is unclear how the money collected will be working on the construction of Rogun and how citizen-shareholders will receive dividends on the investment.

Experts believe that the campaign to sell shares in Roghun had the following main task – to link the money supply in Tajikistan. Initially, the process of collecting money from the sale of shares took place in such a way that the money accumulated in the accounts of various commercial banks. Money first went to increase the liquidity of the Tajik banks, but then the question arose of placing them in commercially viable projects. According to the Ministry of Finance of Tajikistan, to increase the liquidity of the banking system has gone 230 million Somoni (approximately 52 million dollars). The fate of the remaining 589 million Somoni (about $ 133 million) is not known officially, it was stated that 200 million Somoni was spent to purchase equipment for Rogun. However, no tenders for the procurement of equipment was conducted.

Effectively invest money in Tajikistan, gathered at the Rogun now impossible. The domestic market is extremely narrow, eroded the business climate. Inflation eats bank interest, grass-roots campaign to raise money for Rogun led to a sharp contraction of money supply in Tajikistan.

Exemption so much for the country’s money supply has made it virtually impossible in the years to form a functioning middle class – a potentially very dangerous for the current regime. Rakhimov’s opponents accuse him of being that most of the money was withdrawn abroad and is unlikely to come back.

Threats to external economic nature

Although Tajikistan is very limited involved in international trade, downside risks to the international situation are essential to Dushanbe. We have already discussed the threat of the sharp increase in bread prices, but price increases could affect virtually all foods imported into the country.

Tajik experts say the possibility of higher prices for imported food products by 15 per cent cause of these forecasts due to adverse weather conditions in the countries – the main suppliers of sugar, cereals, tea, coffee, etc. “This will lead to the fact that in 2011 a proposal on the markets These products will be limited, which creates conditions for further price increases, “- experts are convinced.

According to the head of the IMF in Dushanbe Ari Aizen, “Risks are associated with problems in terms of cargo transit through neighboring countries of Tajikistan, the uncertainty of economic recovery in the partner countries, as well as with the pressure that can occur due to rising food prices.”

Aluminium production – the main export product of Tajikistan – has stagnated. Unlike past years, the production of aluminum lost the role of locomotive of industrial production in the country. Despite the good market conditions and a significant increase in world prices, aluminum production increased slightly, by only 2.8%. The main reason – the relentless selective trade embargo by the Uzbek side, preventing the supply of alumina in sufficient quantities.

Dramatically reduced Tajik exports to CIS countries. In 2010, it declined by 25.5 percent and has a tendency to further reduction. An important reason for the collapse of exports to neighboring countries is to break the single electricity market in the region, and Uzbekistan’s refusal to purchase excess electricity generated by hydropower plant in Tajikistan during the summer. In 2010, exports of electricity has almost stopped completely, and fell by 95%. As a result, no-load discharge of water in Tajikistan this year lost up to $ 60 million as lost profits from sales of electricity for export. Fairly rapidly growing external debt Dushanbe – 9 months in 2010 it increased to 99.15 million U.S. dollars – with 1 billion 691.3 million U.S. dollars on January 1 this year to 1 billion 790.45 million U.S. dollars on October 1 this year, accounting for 31.85% of GDP.

Tajikistan are the largest creditors of China (655 million dollars) and the U.S.. In the case of aggravation of relations with these countries Dushanbe fiscal position is under threat.