“Phlegmatic reaction to the crisis of state elites suggests that a significant number of them were initially interested in the beginning of the collapse of the currency”, – commented on June 11 told BakuToday Belarusian economist Alexander Sinkevich ambiguous assessment of the Belarusian expert community, crisis management plans of the authorities of Belarus, providing for the privatization of Belarusian enterprises of strategic importance.

Last week has been particularly active and high-ranking Belarusian officials (including Alexander Lukashenko), and independent experts of Belarus and Russia discussed the plans announced by the Belarusian side, the sale of such enterprises as “Belaruskali” and “Beltransgaz” Russian investors. “Apparently, it is closely connected with the beginning of social protest, of which I spoke in April. To bring down the apocalyptic expectations of the population, the authorities took active steps in the information field,” positive “news of the imminent privatization, abundant credit, and the forced reduction of consumer prices “- said in this connection Sinkevich. – “Remember, however, that privatization – a process very soon. In addition, the actual sale of the assets can not follow – knocking off a wave of panic and protest, the government may try to avoid external loans and the mobilization of domestic resources. At the same time the Belarusian government has chances to survive the current crisis and to preserve its economic potential. But it requires strong political will and the consolidation of the people and the elite around the government. And here – a serious problem. “

“Chaotic throwing the authorities in recent months indicate a lack of clear strategic vision of saving the country. In particular, the turnaround plan, adopted on May 25, limited to the current year, which does not indicate its seriousness. Its main task – to create a favorable background information in the society and the implementation of formal requirements to obtain foreign loans, “- said Sinkevich. According to experts, the government published June 3, “Plan of Action for the balanced development of economy in terms of change of the exchange rate of” do not meet the criteria of the national strategy. “In essence, this paper proposes to correct the imbalance of payments of the country by the contraction of the economy with a simultaneous tightening of fiscal policy (issue – 4%, and the budget deficit – 1.5% of GDP). From p.5 plan that the government plans to eliminate many jobs. It is also expected to decline in construction and public investment program rekvestiruetsya 30%, “- said the expert. “At the same time declaring the need to increase exports, although this will require increased investments in foreign currency working capital and investment. To solve this difficult task is intended to create A.34 some” strategic planning department of export. “Theoretically, they should be collected the best marketers and logisticians of the country, and to attract foreign experts. Generally, however, in practice such units are converted into ordinary cushy jobs for government officials. “

According to Sinkevich current Belarusian crisis has not only an economic dimension. “Phlegmatic reaction to the crisis of state elites suggests that a significant number of them were initially interested in the beginning of the currency collapse. It is no secret that every crisis can-informed individuals cobble together the whole state. Many people today continue to make active in the murky waters of multiple courses and compulsory price control – said the Belarusian expert. – But most importantly, that entering into the taste of the elite is interested in continuing and deepening crisis. Indeed, in these circumstances, the state will inevitably be forced to sell their assets for a song – the creation of such a situation, not saying a word, purposefully works a lot of influential people both within Belarus and abroad. Thus, the consolidation of the elites around the idea of ​​saving the country a big question. “

But the problem is not only the competence and the will of the Belarusian politicians “not to say that the Belarusian people are ready to fight to keep its economy and sovereignty,” – said the expert. He recalled the situation in Belarus in the late 80-ies of XX century, “when many people throughout the Soviet Union rallied behind the most diverse and contradictory ideas, and only in Belarus, hundreds of thousands came out unanimously to require only cheaper consumer goods.” Sinkevich concluded that the authorities have learned from that period and guided them in their current situation. “Since then, the Belarusian authorities to draw their own conclusions about the” higher values ​​”of their people and at the center of the state put the stability of binding saturation of the consumer basket. At the same time mobilizing any serious idea, elevating the human spirit over the primitive consumerism, was proposed. As a result, there was a paradox : Belarusian society in spirit close to the European consumer standards, despite the authorities’ anti-Western rhetoric. “

“From this point of view and should be considered social protests unfolded. Everything that is happening – just hurt consumer groups, deprived of its usual level of consumption. Hasty statements of opposition leaders of” awakening and unity of civil society “appear unfounded attempts to wishful thinking – continued Sinkevich. – And it is important to understand what may increase in such “consumer” revolt, if the authorities fail to curb their tide. Increasing protests will inevitably push the already confused the government to the urgent sale of profitable state assets – and not just in word but in case “. Belarusian economist drew an analogy: “About as alcoholics get rid of her apartment in exchange for a few boxes of vodka. Buyers are ready and looking forward to this moment. Then quickly end vodka, but in the apartment already settled respectable aunts and uncles, which will give the electorate the way neprospavshemusya the dustbin of history. “

According to Sinkevich avoid negative scenario Belarusian society will not be easy: “For this elite and society must move beyond their own narrow selfish ambitions and short-sighted to begin work on a consolidated extricating the country from the abyss. But, unfortunately, have not yet seen people able to responsible self- for such high and long-term goals. “

As reported BakuToday, june 3, the government of Belarus issued an “Action Plan to ensure balanced economic development in terms of change of the Belarusian ruble.” Recall June 10 meeting on the development of “Belaruskali” Lukashenko said that the potential buyer of the Belarusian state-owned enterprises of JSC “Belaruskali” will have to pay more than $ 30 billion in inflation-adjusted U.S. dollars. Prior to this, in May 2010, Lukashenko did not rule out the possibility of selling “Belaruskali”. In June of that year, First Vice-Premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko said Belarus’ readiness to sell 25% stake in “Belaruskali” for $ 6-7 billion to the fall of 2010 the company was corporatized Soligorsk – 100% of the shares was transferred to state ownership. In autumn 2010, it became known about the fruitless negotiations with Belarus leadership potential buyers of businesses in Russia and China, and June 8 has learned that the Russian company “Nafta Moscow”, owned by a member of the Federation Council of Dagestan Suleiman Kerimov, ready to buy a controlling stake (50% stake + 1 share) “Belaruskali” for $ 15 billion

Also note. That on June 7 First Vice-Premier of Belarus said that to be sold to “Gazprom” of the Belarusian state-owned shares “Beltransgaz” is to supply to the republic of the Russian gas at Russian domestic prices. The Russian side has said about the unacceptability of such a statement of the issue and believes that the gas prices and the price of “Beltransgaz” – different transactions are not related. Prior to that, on May 27, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that Russian-Belarusian talks to acquire “Gazprom” 50% “Beltransgaz” are completed and if the Russian side to arrange terms of purchase, the transaction can be effected in the near future.