Military intervention in Iran unlikely, but theoretically possible and can begin no earlier than the autumn of 2012, expected in March of this year’s parliamentary elections in IRAN. This at a press conference in Yerevan on 14 January, said a military expert Gevorg Hovhannisyan, correspondent BakuToday .

As he remarked, it is possible that pressure and sanctions the West on Iran were aimed at the parliamentary elections in IRAN have developed processes on beneficial to them, which is the political destabilization of the country. “The recent murder of Iranian physics has shown that the secret services of Western countries have a relatively stable position in Iran and, if necessary, can take drastic measures,” the expert said.

Note that in Tehran on January 11 when a booby-trapped vehicle killed an Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. Representatives of the Iranian secret service called the explosion a terrorist, which, in their view, was organized by the Israeli secret services.

The rhetoric of Western politicians on Iran, according to Ovanisâna, not so unambiguous and cutting. “If the West is firmly decided to go for a military conflict, their expert circles began to be publicly available in Iran, nuclear weapons and the need to eliminate it. Now evaluation with few exceptions, are diplomatic nature, “he said.

Constraints of the Iranian campaign

Military intervention in Iran is quite difficult for the West and constantly delayed for several reasons, one of which is controversial among the major global players-Russia, the Western countries, the United States, Japan and China, said Gevorg Hovhannisyan. As the expert said, in the case of a military campaign against Iran, oil prices rebounded sharply, because Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, which is more than 30% of the global transportation of oil exports by sea. “Another pretty strong deterrent to Iranian campaign are local regional problems of Karabakh conflict, the problem of the Talysh in Azerbaijan and the Kurdish question, which dramatically worsen when the war with IRAN,” he predicts. If between global powers on the above issues will be reached, and the possible destabilization of the entire region will not disturb them, military intervention in Iran will be a very realistic view Hovhannisyan.

In the meantime, editor-in-Chief of the journal “Russia in global politics” Fedor Lukyanov in a conversation with correspondent BakuToday expressed confidence that in case of war with the IRI can only talk about air strikes, “any land operation in an attempt to occupy Iran is because of this there is no political will and resources”. As it seems the military operation is possible only if Iran, for its internal logic, wants the war to provoke.

“In the nuclear programme, in fact, nothing new has happened, so the escalation is not with this, and with the changes in the region, which occurred as a result of the” Arab spring “. The threat of same Iran close Strait of Hormuz, is actually a bluff because it is a 100% case Belli (cause of the war). United States will not tolerate this and they’ve clearly stated. If Iran decides that it is profitable to provoke war, confident that a ground invasion would not be, and aerial operations do not change the situation fundamentally, in this case, war is possible. But I think that Iran will refrain from overt provocations and without military conflict, “said political scientist.

Middle East and the Karabakh conflict

Armenia’s position on the Iranian issue in General can be characterized as “active neutrality” noted Gevorg Hovhannisyan, adding that thus Armenia wishes to contribute to the easing of tensions around Tehran. “Of course, Armenia could not stop the military campaign against Iran, but it is not started, Yerevan can through consultation with Western and Iranian counterparts to try to reduce filament”, he said. According to the expert, the war with Iran will push forward and Karabagh conflict resolution that really changes the current status quo. “Everything will depend on the passive or active anti-Iraq position will follow Baku. In this case, the peaceful settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict can either accelerate or return to the stage of military conflict, “Hovannisian concluded.

According to the forecast Lukyanova, probable war with Iran very badly affect the Middle East region and in the Karabakh conflict. “In the Middle East will inflate how himself would lead the Saudi Arabia and its allies, which played first violin in all these events. It was important for them to take revenge for the fact that Iran has strengthened its regional influence due to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and now “Arab spring” enabled the Sunni regimes sideline Tehran back. Therefore, in the event of impact, the result is a sophisticated combination-Israel, which is interested, Saudi Arabia, which is interested and the United States, but all have different interests and they don’t match, “said the expert.

Strong destabilization of the situation in Iran, according to the analyst, could trigger, to see out of balance the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. “The status quo now quite strong, despite all the statements, but if there is another common situation around, you may experience any temptations to Turkey and Azerbaijan on the issue. I’m almost sure that any serious change of surroundings in the area of the Caspian Sea, of course, if Iran will be the target of an attack, if not immediately, then over time affect the Karabakh conflict, “concluded Fyodor Lukyanov.