The annual report of Freedom House says that many countries in the former Soviet Union, including Azerbaijan, are becoming more vulnerable to crises such as is happening now in the Arab world. Study focused on democratic processes in the former Soviet Union, and according to its findings, 80 percent of the population of the region, more than 220 million people lived in 2010 under authoritarian regimes. Freedom House, analyzing the situation in post-Soviet space, draws parallels with the latest developments in the Arab world. The report notes the continued destruction of institutional accountability and democracy in many former Soviet republics. It is also noted that the leadership in most of these authoritarian countries remain in power without the prospect of a meaningful rotation of the power elite and no signs of serious reformist initiatives. Since these countries are not visible on the horizon of meaningful reform, and serious efforts to liberalize, they seriously threaten the prospects of political stagnation in the foreseeable future. When at last the time comes and opportunities for reform, it would make much more difficult, the report says Freedom House.
For Azerbaijan, the need for political and economic reforms is also highly topical, has long demanded by society and are constantly ignored the topic of power. This topic, although today has acquired a special political relevance, but the syndrome reform expectations in the Azerbaijani society arose much earlier – right after the 2003 presidential election. The reason for provoking wide public interest in the subject served as one of the first decrees of the new president Ilham Aliyev, in which the declared policy of economic reforms. This initiative is the president got on fertile ground. Reforms in the economic sphere, were in demand by society at least since the late 1990s. But the former president Heydar Aliyev, “Looped” mainly on the problems of oil-Karabakh and the strengthening of the power of its own, not paying attention to political and economic reform of the country. It is no accident that the society at that time lost interest in reform. Resuscitation hopes and feverish surge of interest in the topic of reform began after the coming to power of President Ilham Aliyev. This was due to several reasons:
- Firstly, the efforts of official propaganda, Ilham Aliyev was seen as a certain part of society, “the leader of the reform wing” of the ruling elite,
- Secondly, actively interested in the reforms fueled by external community, cooperate fully with the strengthening of the reformist image of a new president,
- Third, the objective (crisis) state of socio-economic processes in the country and the course of the global trends are gradually formed in the atmosphere of the whole society expectations of comprehensive reforms,
- Finally, the newly-born president, Ilham Aliyev, right after the election, personally declared the commitment to reform and has published a number of relevant decrees.
Due to these factors, it seemed that the course of reforms demanded by society and not only the situation, but the logic of political self-assertion of a new president. Logically, the reforms were necessary not only society but also the most Ilham Aliyev: With such a policy, he could get a positive image of the reformer, to assert itself as a progressive president and load a contemporary problem of “continuing course of my father.”
Indeed, soon after the election – February 2, 2004 – President Ilham Aliyev held a business forum and it clearly identified priority issues (monopoly, bureaucratic and police brutality, corruption, court costs and the tax system, etc.) that must be decide for the success of the reform policy. The president even made a serious and final warning to those who would stand in the way of reform. Then, many believed in the sincerity of the president and the adoption (February 11) the state program of socio-economic development of society tuned to confirm the optimistic expectations. Behind the 7 years of vain expectations.
However, from the outset it was clear that the effectiveness of policy reforms and the success of the state program of socio-economic development, suggest a thorough transformation of a corrupt bureaucratic command. Corruption and bureaucratic conservatism inherent in many members of the ruling team initially questioned the success of reform policies, threatening to turn good intentions into imitation and propaganda show. Dispel doubts the president could and should have been decisive measures to combat corruption, monopoly, bureaucracy and practical steps to restructure the team.
However, all this was not followed and implementation of policy reforms will soon become a purely ceremonial and promotional in nature (in the spirit of the Soviet “Red Banner Five-Year Plans”). Accordingly, the optimistic expectations of the society gradually abated. Advocacy success overshadowed the real reforms. Soon the topic of reform gradually died down, even in official political rhetoric. Speeches state officials have become more like a cliche rhetoric 1970-1980-s Soviet stagnation: the flow of patent propaganda about the enormous success of the country-wide modernization, the record pace of economic growth, democratic conquest, the triumph of order and justice, the welfare of society, happy citizens break up in gratitude for the wonderful life of power. However, as in the stagnant Soviet era, Azerbaijan’s reality at every turn denies reports of victory and show a different picture: rampant corruption, bureaucratic and police brutality, lack of freedom, injustice, unemployment, extreme social polarization, low levels of a large part of society, as well as the views of citizens crushed by emitting fatigue, lack of faith or dissatisfaction. This is the underside, flip side of promoting the development and modernization.
Of course, it would be wrong to doubt the real progress in the modernization and socio-economic development over the years. They are unmistakable. Of course, Azerbaijan, due to the flow of petrodollars rapidly enriched restructured and modernized. On the front face of the country and modified in the capital. Implemented global projects, developing services, updated infrastructure, strengthening the army, being improved many aspects of life, etc. There is no reason to doubt, and data on rates of economic growth, budget, GDP, investment, trade, etc. All this and much more, really, talk about the positive dynamics in the development of the country. Country, but not in the lives of ordinary citizens. The whole point is that real life behind the windows of the presidential palace and the luxury villas nomenklatura oligarchs is far from the triumphant report. As in Soviet times, there is a clear gap between words and deeds, between official propaganda success “wide walking Azerbaijan” and the real state of affairs in the country and, most importantly, the lives of its citizens.
Meanwhile, ordinary citizens, by and large, do not care about the record pace of economic development and growth of the budget and GDP, the flow of investment, strategic pipeline billion oil fund, grandiose palaces and other schemes, all of which are almost no effect on their daily lives. The older generation of the country already sated by the throat fables of communism in the former Soviet life. A young pragmatic solution is configured to their specific personal problems. What they all statistics to propaganda of present and future achievements of Azerbaijan, if the real life at every step shows the opposite: rising prices, the stress of arbitrariness, of irresponsibility, corruption, hypocrisy, lack of freedom and all sorts of problems? What are they up to the global modernization projects, if there is no work, money, and the normal conditions of existence, if not the country raportuemye successes lead to increased levels of quality, comfort and legal protection of the lives of ordinary citizens?
In fact, in many post-Soviet authoritarian countries, including Azerbaijan, reform society’s expectations were not realized and the citizens were again at the split in the bifurcated world, where propaganda produces one, and the realities of a very different picture of life. Meanwhile, as the true experts predict Freedom House, a further failure to reform or sabotaging their quiet promises an authoritarian post-Soviet countries, including Azerbaijan, the inevitable slide into a situation of political stagnation. Maybe it’s time to heed these warnings?
